Expansion in the volume of global merchandise trade would pick up only slightly in the coming two years as presently it grows from 2.8 percent in 2014 to 3.3 percent in 2015 and eventually it will grow to 4.0 percent in 2016. Trade growth would therefore remain well below the yearly average of 5.1 percent recorded since 1990.
The modest gains during 2014, marked third consecutive year in which trade increased less than 3 percent. Trade growth averaged about 2.4 percent between 2012 and 2014, the slowest rate on post for a three-year period when trade was enlarging (i.e. excluding years like 1975 and 2009 when global trade actually declined).
The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts 3.3 percent progress in the volume of global merchandise trade for 2015 and 4.0 percent progress for 2016 but it is premised on consensus of world real GDP at market exchange rates from other agencies. These facts imply multiples of trade development over GDP growth slightly more than 1 in 2015 and 2016, greater than the rough 1-to-1 ratios for 2012-14 but still well below the 2-to-1 ratios that were common not so long ago.
Exports of emerging/developing economies are forecast to increase 3.6 percent during 2015, while their imports are predicted to rise by 3.7 percent.
Meanwhile, a 3.2 percent increase is anticipated for developed economies on both the import and export sides.
Asia should have the strongest export presentation of any region this year (5.0 percent), followed intimately by North America (4.5 percent). Europe’s exports would also enhance, with shipments growing 3.0 percent during 2015, up from 1.9 percent previous year. The weakest export progress during 2015 would be in S. America (0.2 percent) and other regions (-0.6 percent, comprising Africa, Middle East and CIS), although small changes in export volumes from year to year are normal for resource-rich regions.
Asia and North America should both see imports rise by almost 5.0 percent during 2015, while Europe registers import progress of less than 3 percent.
In contrast to this development, South America and other regions are predicted to register falls of 0.5 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively.
In case of Pakistan, given continued power crisis, overall security issues, foreign regional currencies depreciation, sluggish world economic development and trade, the country’s external sector presentation stayed satisfactory. The country’s exports base and markets are very narrow. The other three items like leather, synthetic made ups and rice contribute almost 14 percent of overall exports.
PAKISTAN EXPORTS OTHER THAN TEXTILE ($ Million)
Carpets, Rugs & Mats
Fish & Fish Preparation
Surgical G. & Med. Inst.
Chemical & Pharma. Pro.
Oil Seeds, Nuts & Kernels
Meat & Meat Preparation
Other Food items
Guar & Guar Products
All Other Manufactures
All Other items
Petroleum Top Neptha
Pakistan is also yet to enter in hi-tech exports. Although the country trades with a great number of states, its exports nevertheless are extremely concentrated in few states. Almost 60 percent of the country’s exports’ destinations are to 10 states like; USA, UK and Germany, France, China, UAE, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Italy and Spain.
Further, among these states, the utmost export earnings come from USA (15 percent) and European states (20 percent) making up almost one-third of the total. China with its share (9 percent) in overall exports has become our regional trading partner. The share of export to Afghanistan in overall exports, however, registered a fall in present years from 10 percent in FY2012 to 8 percent during present year.
The share of exports to EU states such as Italy, Spain and France etc stayed relatively stagnant. However, it is predicted that with the grant of GSP Plus status, Pakistan exports to EU states would gain momentum in upcoming days.
Pakistan exports to UAE, Bangladesh and some other Asian states also could not show much progress despite existence of FTAs.